Operation Sindoor: Fallout Hinges on Escalation Level, Says Former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman

 The economic impact of rising tensions between India and Pakistan — tensions that intensified after India’s May 7 strikes on terror bases across the border — will largely depend on how the situation evolves in the coming days, according to Rajiv Kumar, former vice chairman of NITI Aayog.




Speaking to Moneycontrol, Kumar noted that a prolonged conflict could trigger capital flight and place a heavy fiscal burden on the Indian economy, even though India has emphasized that Operation Sindoor was a precise, non-escalatory action.

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Concerns are mounting over the possibility of a full-scale military conflict after India targeted nine terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack two weeks earlier that claimed 26 lives.

“The fallout really hinges on how much the situation escalates,” Kumar said. “In the worst-case scenario, we could see foreign capital pulling out and a significant fiscal impact due to increased defence spending. There’s also the possibility of a higher current account deficit if defence-related imports rise.”

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